← Stevenson Games PTM Store Champs
Water FractalTier 1
at Stevenson Games PTM Store Champs
decks
2
(15.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
5-4-2
overall winrate
54.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
64.3%
avg ELO +6.2 per match
expected value
51.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1208
· median 1208
· range 1118–1297
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1065
Q1 1118
Q3 1378
1656
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.3% | -5.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.7% | +5.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 7.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 46.4% | -3.5 |
| Water Allies | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.7% | +21.9 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.7% | +21.9 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.9% | +19.1 |
| Wind Alice | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.7% | +23.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.3 |
